Health Data

Modeled from the Social Security Administration's 2023 period life table, adjusted by the eight factors below (cardio fitness, BMI, sleep, resistance training, smoking, alcohol, county of residence, marital status) — not a clinical or actuarial risk assessment. It doesn't account for blood pressure, cholesterol, family history, or other major risk factors not tracked here, and multiplies all eight together assuming they're independent, which likely overstates the combined effect somewhat since some of them are correlated (fitness and BMI, for instance). The underlying signals themselves carry real measurement noise too — a watch-estimated VO2max especially — which is part of why this is shown as a range rather than a single number. The VO2max input was last measured 72 days ago, so it carries less weight below than the fresher resting-heart-rate and step signals.

There's no personalized model for this the way there is for mortality above — no published hazard ratios exist for how fitness, sleep, etc. delay disability or chronic-disease onset specifically, only for death. So instead this takes the WHO's healthy-life-expectancy share for U.S. men (2021: 62.8 of 73.7 years lived at birth, or 85% of a lifetime spent in full health) and applies that same population-average fraction to my own personalized lifespan estimate above. It probably understates my real healthspan: research on "morbidity compression" suggests healthy behavior tends to delay the onset of decline rather than just stretching out a fixed unhealthy tail, but no dataset was found precise enough to model that directly.